Predicting electoral behaviour in turbulent times: The Valencian Community case (Spain)

E. DE, LA POZA and L., JODAR and M., MARTINEZ (2015) Predicting electoral behaviour in turbulent times: The Valencian Community case (Spain). In: Third International Conference on Advances in Social Science, Economics and Management Study- SEM 2015, 26 - 27 May,2015, Birmingham B42 2SU, UNITED KINGDOM.

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Abstract

Lack of recovery of unemployment, more taxes, deterioration of the welfare system, high level of corruption and public debt, and lack of confidence in the Government’s labour are driving a large proportion of the electoral register to support new emergent political parties. In this paper we construct a mathematical model to quantify this electoral change in the Valencian Community. By using a population model and splitting electoral options into five main categories, we modelled the dynamic transits among electoral choices by quantifying the expected electoral support scenario in the Valencian Community for the next local elections.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Mathematical population model, electoral analysis, socio-economic factors.
Depositing User: Mr. John Steve
Date Deposited: 30 Apr 2019 11:49
Last Modified: 30 Apr 2019 11:49
URI: http://publications.theired.org/id/eprint/1748

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